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| Special Project: Climate
Assessment and Proactive Response Initiative (CAPRI)
Puget Sound Pilot
Overview:
The goal of CAPRI is to
prepare for, mitigate, and adapt to climate change-related
contaminant impacts in the coastal zone.
A Draft White Paper for the Climate Assessment and Proactive Response Initiative has been released. If you
have comments or questions please contact Robert.Neely@noaa.gov.
Predicted
environmental changes associated with climate change will increase threats to NOAA
trust resources. Contaminated soil and sediment at waste sites,
chemical storage tanks, and oil storage facilities and pipelines
near the coasts are vulnerable to climate change, and coastal
natural resources in urban areas are already stressed by
contamination. Increases in releases of hazardous waste and oil from
flooding or sea level rise will result in further environmental and
socioeconomic losses. Proactive response to and prevention of these
future losses is an emerging priority.
There are three overlapping components of the proactive response initiative:
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Threat Assessment
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Apply regionalized climate change data and models
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Map oil infrastructure, waste sites, and contaminant models
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Identify potential impacts to sensitive habitats, species, and human uses due
to contaminant releases
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Vulnerability Index and Assessment
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Determine values for climate change risk factors (inundation, air temperature,
wetland habitat change, other factors to be added in future iterations)
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Develop a relationship between potential impacts and climate change risk
factors
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Integrate spatially explicit risks and values into suite of vulnerability
indices
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Identification of Prevention/Response/Restoration Options
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Evaluate methods, risks and benefits associated with various
response/prevention strategies
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Provide recommendations for further analysis
In this assessment, a series of vulnerability indices are calculated that combine
climate change impacts, human uses, habitats, species, and potential waste site
releases. These indices are ultimately integrated together into a combined
vulnerability index for a particular geographic location. The framework for
developing the vulnerability indices is outlined in Figure 1.
Figure 1. Analytical Framework
Click to enlarge image
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CAPRI links contaminant sources, climate scenarios, and the vulnerability
assessment in a geospatial decision-support tool platform, the
Environmental Response Management Application (ERMA). ERMA is a
user-friendly, web-based platform, which allows for easy visualization of
results in a geospatial context. This platform allows for integration and
synthesis of static, as well as real-time information. ERMA will allow
stakeholders and communities to visualize and prioritize increased risk of
releases of hazardous waste and oil, as well as needs for habitat restoration
due to climate change.
Location: Puget Sound, Washington is the focus for the CAPRI pilot, which
demonstrates our approach. Puget Sound, the second largest estuary in the
U.S., is a highly productive and biologically diverse ecosystem. Natural
resources in the Sound support recreation, industries, and tourism. In this
region, climate models predict earlier river peak flows and more severe
flooding, reduced summer flows, and rising sea levels that will have ecological
and economic impacts.
In the current development stage, four areas within the Sound have been selected
as test sites. These sites are NOAA priority areas that support port and
industrial complexes, significant natural resources, and restoration
opportunities.
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Commencement Bay
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Lower Duwamish River
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Nisqually Estuary/Olympia
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Snohomish Estuary
Figure 2. Snohomish Estuary, Vulnerability Indices, 2100
Click to enlarge the entire image or select an
individual map to enlarge
Audience/Benefits: Through the improved understanding of climate
vulnerabilities and particular areas of concern, users will be better able to
prepare for and then adapt to climate change. Results can be utilized in
restoration planning, clean up decisions, and identification of areas of
concern requiring further analysis. A wide range of users will potentially benefit from
development of this assessment.
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NOAA coastal managers
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Puget Sound Partnership
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State managers
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Regional managers, counties, municipalities
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Tribes
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Ports, industry
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Non-profits
Project Status: The pilot began in January, 2009, and
the initial development phase was completed in Fall 2011. A prototype that demonstrates the proof of
concept is now available. Details on our approach, and data and analytical
results displayed in ERMA will be available in the near future.
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